Investment Market: Recovery and Stabilisation

In 2024, the warehouse segment accounted for €1.26 billion (+27% y/y) of the total investment market, representing 25% of all transactions. While retail and office assets recorded spectacular growth (+282% and +272%, respectively), the industrial and logistics sector continued to attract stable capital inflows. A key trend was the resurgence of portfolio transactions, which made up 58% of the total transaction volume in 2024. Notable ownership changes included the acquisition of five 7R parks by the Czech fund Investika and purchasing three Diamond Business Parks by the US investor Greykite.

Grzegorz Chmielak, Head of Capital Markets & Valuations, Axi Immo, commented: “Investors are focusing on key warehouse hubs such as Warsaw, Upper Silesia, and Poznań, where market fundamentals remain strong. Portfolio transactions between developers remain a popular way to expand, often proving more cost-effective than new developments due to high construction and financing costs. We expect investment activity to increase in the coming quarters. By the end of 2024, prime big-box yields had stabilised at 6.5%, further enhancing investment attractiveness.”

Take-up: A Stable Year with a Growing Share of Lease Renewals

In 2024, total leasing activity reached 5.8 million sqm (+4% y/y), with lease renewals accounting for 48% of all transactions. This trend indicates that businesses are prioritising stability and operational optimisation. The three most active regions were Mazowieckie (1.37 million sqm), Łódzkie (1 million sqm), and Dolnośląskie (891,000 sqm). Net take-up, including new leases and expansions, stood at 3.4 million sqm (+1% y/y), maintaining last year’s level. Retail tenants overtook logistics as the largest demand driver, with e-commerce and retail sector companies signing the biggest leases. The largest included a 103,800 sqm lease in Bydgoszcz Białe Błota LC (Kuyavian-Pomeranian region) for a retail tenant, as well as a 98,700 sqm lease renewal and expansion for a logistics operator at Prime Logistics Wrocław Pietrzykowice, and a new 91,000 sqm lease at Panattoni Wrocław Logistics South Hub-  both in the Dolnośląskie region.

Anna Głowacz, Head of Industrial, Axi Immo, explained: “Companies are increasingly choosing to stay in their existing locations to avoid relocation costs and maintain operational stability. Rent levels and labour shortages remain the key constraints on relocation decisions. We are also seeing growing interest in environmentally certified buildings, reflecting the continued development of ESG strategies in the sector.”

Supply: Returning to Pre-Pandemic Activity Levels

Total warehouse developer activity in 2024 amounted to 2.6 million sqm (-30% y/y). Despite this decline, new supply was in line with pre-pandemic averages, suggesting a return to more sustainable sector growth. The highest volume of new space was delivered in Dolnośląskie (675,000 sqm), followed by Mazowieckie (468,000 sqm) and Łódzkie (343,000 sqm). Major warehouse completions included P3 Wrocław (172,800 sqm) in Dolnośląskie and two CTP projects: CTPark Gdańsk Port (119,400 sqm) in Pomorskie and CTPark Warsaw West (Wiskitki) in Mazowieckie (110,400 sqm). Notable parks below 100,000 sqm included Panattoni Park Wrocław Logistics South Hub (90,000 sqm) and GLP Wrocław V Logistics Centre (86,200 sqm). At year-end, 1.8 million sqm remained under construction (-38% y/y), with the highest concentration in Śląskie (383,000 sqm), Dolnośląskie (344,000 sqm), and Łódzkie (232,000 sqm). Speculative developments accounted for 47% of all space under construction, slightly lower than in previous years.

Vacancy Rates: Stable Throughout 2024

By the end of 2024, the vacancy rate stood at 7.5% (+0.1 pp y/y, -0.5 pp q/q), indicating continued market stability. The highest vacancy rates were recorded in Lubuskie (19%) and Świętokrzyskie (16.9%) while emerging markets such as Podlaskie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie remained nearly fully occupied. Among major markets, the highest availability was seen in Łódzkie (9.7%), Dolnośląskie (9.6%), and Wielkopolskie (7%). Moderate levels of new tenant activity and a high proportion of lease renewals helped balance supply and take-up.

Rental Rates: No Major Changes on the Horizon

In 2024, base rents in the industrial and logistics sector remained stable in most regions, with slight increases of up to 5% in some areas. Average rents for big-box facilities ranged from €3.6 to 4.3/sqm/month in older buildings and from €4.0 to 5.5/sqm/month in new developments. The lowest rents were found in Łódzkie, Śląskie, and Wielkopolskie (€3.6–3.8/sqm/month), while the highest was in Warsaw, where new projects commanded up to €7.25/sqm/month.

2025 Outlook: Cautious Optimism

Renata Osiecka, Managing Partner, Axi Immo, summarised: “We foresee Poland’s industrial and logistics sector will remain one of the strongest in Europe in 2025, supported by projected economic growth, which bodes well for supply and demand. Businesses are expected to focus on process optimisation and ESG strategy implementation. Relocations will be carefully considered, with rising costs and labour shortages leading to increased lease renegotiations. On the supply side, developers will concentrate on markets with limited availability, prioritising projects with a high level of pre-leasing. Meanwhile, stabilisation of yields in the investment market should stimulate investor activity, including acquisitions of ready-built assets.”