Take-up: Poland secures a podium finish once again

In the third quarter of 2024, industrial take-up amounted to more than 1.1 million sqm, down by 34% from the previous quarter.

"Total take-up for January-September 2024 surpassed 3.8 million sqm, marking a 4% increase year-on-year and placing Poland second in Europe, just behind Germany, which recorded 4.0 million sqm of transactions. This reaffirms that Poland remains an attractive destination for industrial and warehouse projects as it benefits from competitive logistics costs, including energy, labour and lease costs, which are half those of Western European countries and up to 25% lower than in other countries of Central and Eastern Europe. These advantages, coupled with the continued growth of e-commerce, logistics and production, sustain strong demand for warehouse space", comments Damian Kołata, Partner, Head of Industrial & Logistics/E-Commerce CEE, Cushman & Wakefield.

The top-performing regions in the third quarter were Mazovia, Łódzkie and Lower Silesia, with 343,000 sqm, 223,000 sqm and 134,000 sqm leased respectively. The four largest new leases during this period were finalised by confidential tenants in Mazovia and Łódzkie: in CTPark Warsaw West (63,000 sqm), P3 Warsaw I (50,200 sqm) and Prologis Park Łódź (41,500 sqm), and by Oriflame, which took 25,200 sqm in MDC2 Park Łódź South.

"Logistics companies led the pack, accounting for 28% of total year-to-date take-up, followed closely by retail and e-commerce, whose share was just 1 pp lower. Other significant contributors included the production and automotive sectors, which made up 12% and 8% of the leasing volume respectively. The strength of the Polish industrial market is evidenced by the take-up structure: new leases and expansions represented 65% of all transactions in the third quarter, while renewals accounted for the remaining 35%", adds Adrian Semaan, Market Analyst, Cushman & Wakefield.

Supply: Speculative development continues to decelerate

"More than 454,000 sqm of new industrial space was delivered across 22 parks between July and September 2024, bringing Poland’s total industrial stock to nearly 34 million sqm. Approximately 72% of this total had been pre-let before completion. Although another 700,000 sqm is expected to come on stream by the end of this year, only a small portion will be available for lease as more than 70% of this total has already been pre-let", says Damian Kołata.

At the end of September 2024, Poland’s total development pipeline stood at 1.9 million sqm, with 29% located in Lower Silesia, 17% in Mazovia and 15% in Silesia. The volume of speculative construction remained largely unchanged from the previous quarter, totalling 907,000 sqm, but down by a substantial 31% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

"Projects that broke ground in the January-September period totalled 1.2 million sqm, representing the lowest level since 2016, which is likely to push vacancy rates down over time. In the third quarter alone, the overall vacancy rate edged down to 8.0% by the end of September 2024 and is expected to continue its downward trend, driven by the projected economic recovery and the gradual reduction in speculative construction. While Poland’s average vacancy rate remains relatively high, demand outstrips warehouse supply in some locations, particularly in urban submarkets within large agglomerations such as Łódź, Kraków, Warsaw, Gdańsk, Wrocław and Poznań, where the development of new projects on a speculative basis is economically viable", adds Adrian Semaan. 

The highest concentration of construction activity is in Lower Silesia, which accounts for 29% of the development pipeline, followed by Mazovia and Silesia with 17% and 15% shares respectively.

Rents: Headline rents hold firm amid a correction in effective rents

In the third quarter of 2024, monthly headline rents remained flat at €3.60–6.50 per sqm for big-box warehouses and at €5.00–7.50 per sqm for SBU/City Logistics projects. Due to high warehouse availability, effective rents remain under downward pressure. With financial incentives such as rent-free periods or space adaptation contributions, effective rents can be lower than headline rents by a maximum of 15-25%.