US tariffs (20% on EU exports, on top of existing auto/metal tariffs) prompt a downward revision of Erste’s GDP growth forecasts in CEE for 2025 (from 2%-3.8% range to a reduction of up to 0.3%) and 2026 (from 1.9%-4.3% range to a reduction of up to 0.4%), with the 2026 impact depending on tariffs being reduced to 10% in H2 2025 or staying at 20%.

The report reveals that the direct and indirect impact of these tariffs on CEE countries could range from 1.7% to 3.6% of their total value added, with Hungary and Slovakia facing the highest exposure. 

Slovakia and Slovenia: Top exporters in the US

Erste’s data shows that US imports from CEE countries vary significantly across the region. 

Slovakia leads with 6.3% of its GDP represented by exports to the US, followed by Slovenia (5.7%) and Hungary (5.2%). In contrast, Poland (1.7%), Romania (1.2%), and Serbia (1.1%) have lower percentages.  

The composition of these imports also differs, with vehicles being a significant export for countries like Hungary and Slovakia, while pharmaceuticals play a larger role for others.

Within the CEE region, extra-EU trade accounts for 18% to 30% of jobs, with the lowest percentages in Hungary and Romania and the highest in Croatia, mainly in the service sector.

The report, however, indicates that the expected fiscal stimulus in Germany could mitigate some of the adverse effects of the tariffs on the CEE. Germany is already the key trading partner for CEE countries.

Export destinations vary, from roughly one-third of Czechia's goods heading to Germany, to one-quarter of Hungary's and Poland's, and about 10% of Croatia's. Notably, trade within the CEE itself is also a major factor, with USD 237 billion in volume in 2023. 

EU trade supports 38 million European jobs, according to the European Commission.