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Another excellent year for the investment market, record office lease transactions in Warsaw and the burgeoning growth of alternative asset classes - these are some of the Polish commercial property market highlights of 2019. Savills forecasts that next year the market’s performance will depend on the health of the global economy, and key developments will include the completion of spectacular office towers and mixed-use projects.

From retail survival and sustainability investment through to the impact of automation and major political and economic change, Cushman & Wakefield’s new EMEA insight report explores the major themes the commercial real estate industry needs to keep in mind next year.

European office take-up is forecast to reach 9.2 million sqm by the end of 2019, down 4% from 2018’s end-year volume. Prague is expected to exceed that decline, with take-up predicted to fall by 22% to 400,000 sqm as demand for office space in the Czech capital continues the downward trend that began in Q2, according to the latest Savills research.

For the first three quarters of 2019, the CEE region has recorded an investment volume of ca. €9 billion. Offices dominate the deal flows with a 58% share, followed by a much slower retail sector with 18%, industrial & logistics (9%) and hotels (8%).

The development of e-commerce has a growing impact on the development of the industrial real estate sector. The origins can be found in the change of our shopping habits – the popularization of e-commerce has revolutionized logistics operations in warehouses, according to Adrian Semaan, Consultant at the Industrial and Logistics Agency at Cushman & Wakefield Poland.

The market value of office buildings in the Czech Republic and in Prague, in particular, has continued growing as a result of steady demand and insufficient supply. Yields from premium office schemes in Prague currently range around 4.3 percent. Aggregate investments in commercial properties in the Czech Republic for the first three quarters of 2019 amounted to €2.5 billion (almost CZK 64 billion), according to Cushman & Wakefield.

According to the latest RICS Commercial Property Monitor, occupier and investment sentiment remains positive across main CEE markets, even though the Czech Republic has posted its most subdued set of readings in four years. In many countries, demand for retail assets fell on both the occupier and investment sides of the market. Based on rental and capital value projections, secondary retail is visibly suffering in Austria, Bulgaria, Poland and Romania.

According to a new report by Panattoni and CBRE, the attitude towards the future in the logistics, production and trade industries changed slightly compared to last year. The Optimism Level Index in Logistics and Supply Chain in Poland for 2019-2020 was determined at an average level of 49 points, which is lower than the result obtained last year (57.4). Logistics companies are again more positive about the future (53.9 points) than production and trade enterprises using logistics services (44 points). Despite this change in mood, as many as 7 out of 10 institutions assess the costs of supply chain operations in Poland as lower than the EU average, and 6 out of 10 believe that Poland is competitive as a place of investment - both statistics have increased since last year.

According to data from JLL, Poland's supply of mixed-use commercial space has increased nearly six-fold over the last ten years. Mixed-use projects often require major revitalization and reconstruction, in a number of Poland's major metropolitan areas. Such projects include Elektrownia Powiśle, The Warsaw HUB and Koneser in Warsaw, Monopolis in Łódź, and Browar Lubicz in Kraków.  

The share of private sector student accommodation in Prague stood at 6% of the total stock of purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) in October 2019, up slightly from the 5% recorded at the same time last year, according to the latest Savills research.