At the same time, year-end volumes may reach €7.0 - 7.5 billion, about 30% below the 10-year average. Volumes are expected to rise to levels above €10 billion again in 2025. On average, volumes for the region increased by 24% y/y but declined by 37% against Q1-Q3 2022. 

At almost 55% share, Poland secured a majority of regional volumes, with local activity picking up notably over the second and third quarters. Across the region, recorded results varied widely, from a 63% y/y drop in Slovakia, to a 190% y/y growth in Romania. The market is still not fully back to its feet and most deals happen on an off-market basis. 

Office transactions are still on the decline, both globally and in CEE. In Q1-Q3 2024, industrial and offices represented an equal share of total volumes, just below 29%. Retail transactions are following closely at 26% of total volume. 

In Q3 2024, the largest transactions were all from the Industrial sector, and all over €100 million. The two largest transactions were in Poland – an industrial park and a share in an industrial portfolio, the third largest transaction took place in Romania and it concerned a sale of two industrial portfolios.

“Donald Trump’s 2024 election win has raised concerns in Europe, with analysts expecting a return to his 2016-2020 policies. This could negatively impact Western Europe, especially Germany, which is CEE-6’s top export partner (27% of exports in 2023). A decline in capital flows and increased risk perception for the Eurozone are anticipated, adding uncertainty to CEE economies and local asset risk. Clarity on Trump’s geopolitical stance will be crucial in early 2025,” says Silviu Pop, Director, CEE & Romania Research at Colliers.

CEE-6 capital continued to be the most active in Q1-Q3 2024 but has now decreased below 50% share of total regional volumes. Czech capital secured the highest share of volumes with 30%. European capital was the second most active, with the notable role of UK capital, which secured a 13% share of total volumes.